Crucial Jaishankar China Visit Signals Cautious Optimism for Bilateral Ties

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has embarked on his first Jaishankar China visit in five years, arriving in Beijing as part of a two-nation tour that also included Singapore. This highly anticipated diplomatic engagement comes at a pivotal moment, with both New Delhi and Beijing seeking to navigate the complex landscape of their relationship, severely strained since the deadly Galwan Valley clashes in 2020. The visit is largely seen as a critical step towards easing tensions and fostering an environment conducive to improved ties between the two Asian giants.

Upon his arrival, Minister Jaishankar is scheduled to hold a significant bilateral meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Monday. This direct engagement between the top diplomats is a key highlight of the Jaishankar China visit, providing a crucial platform for candid discussions on a range of issues, from border disputes to trade imbalances and regional security. The two leaders last met in February on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in Johannesburg, indicating ongoing efforts to maintain lines of communication despite underlying challenges.

The Agenda of the Jaishankar China Visit: SCO and Beyond

Beyond the bilateral talks, a significant component of the Jaishankar China visit will be his attendance at a meeting of foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tianjin on July 15. The SCO, a 10-nation Eurasian security and political grouping that includes China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iran, offers a multilateral forum for discussions that may extend beyond the direct India-China relationship. During the SCO meeting, Minister Jaishankar is expected to hold additional bilateral meetings with other foreign ministers, further broadening the scope of India’s diplomatic outreach.

This trip follows recent visits by India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to China for SCO meetings in June, signaling a coordinated approach from India to engage with Beijing across multiple levels. Adding to this diplomatic momentum, Wang Yi is also anticipated to visit India next month to meet NSA Ajit Doval as part of the Special Representatives (SR) mechanism. The revival of the SR dialogue, dormant for some time, is particularly significant as it aims to resolve the long-standing and complex boundary dispute that has been a consistent flashpoint in India-China relations. The decision to reactivate this and other dormant channels was reportedly made during an exchange between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping in Kazan, Russia, last October, underscoring a high-level commitment to de-escalation.

Navigating Hurdles During the Jaishankar China Visit

Despite these promising diplomatic overtures, the path to improved ties remains fraught with challenges, and the Jaishankar China visit is expected to confront several contentious issues head-on. Recent trade actions by China have raised concerns in New Delhi, particularly delays or stoppages of key exports to India such as rare earth magnets and tunnel boring machines. These actions not only highlight economic dependencies but also underscore the potential for trade to become a tool in geopolitical maneuvering.

Another persistent point of contention that could impact constructive dialogue during the Jaishankar China visit is China’s unwavering support for Pakistan, especially in the wake of recent clashes in May. India has consistently voiced its concerns over terrorism, and this issue may once again prove to be a sticking point. Indeed, the SCO meeting itself may present challenges, as India previously refused to sign a joint statement at the SCO defence ministers’ meeting due to the exclusion of a reference to a terror attack in Pahalgam. A similar deadlock over terrorism references could potentially arise at the foreign ministers’ meeting, making Minister Jaishankar’s diplomatic task more intricate and demanding.

Looking Ahead: Outcomes of the Jaishankar China Visit

The 2020 Galwan Valley standoff remains a stark reminder of the fragility of India-China relations, having significantly escalated tensions and brought bilateral ties to a historic low. Against this backdrop, the current Jaishankar China visit carries immense weight and expectations. While immediate breakthroughs may be elusive, the primary objective is to foster an environment of stability, de-escalate lingering tensions, and explore avenues for practical cooperation. The recent resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra after nearly five years offers a small but positive sign of progress in humanitarian and cultural exchanges, demonstrating that cooperation is possible even amidst broader geopolitical complexities.

The outcomes of this Jaishankar China visit will be closely watched by global observers, as the relationship between these two populous nations has significant implications for regional stability and the broader international order. It remains unclear whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the SCO’s annual summit in China later this year, but the groundwork laid by Minister Jaishankar’s current engagement will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of future high-level interactions. This visit is not merely about addressing past grievances but about charting a pragmatic course for a future where both nations can coexist and potentially cooperate, ensuring that the world’s two most populous countries contribute constructively to global peace and prosperity.